With
steady reductions in the price of processing power and memory, intelligence will
continue to penetrate and populate virtually every product. Advances in wireless
technology will allow low-cost, high-speed connections for hand-held devices, as
well conventional appliances (washing-machines, refrigerators, etc.) to the
Internet. So in the next few years
almost everything will become an intelligent, connected "appliance".
Bells
& whistles need manuals
Consider
what we need from the products we use: how to use (buttons, features,
capabilities), history, location, part number, where purchased, when installed,
by who, key characteristics, specifications, diagnostics, availability of
spares, replacement alternatives, repair instructions, etc. In the past, this
information would reside in printed documentation (the manuals), or remotely at
the factory, or with trained experts. In the future, the appliance itself will
contain all of the required knowledge, embedded within it and always accessible.
Today,
products are designed to be simple and foolproof, with intuitive controls and
adjustments, so that anyone can use them with minimal training. Intrinsically
complex products with multiple uses (like a computer, or a VCR) arrive with
fairly bulky manuals, which one has to study before the products can be used
effectively. Because most people do not wish to spend the time with a complex
manual, there is usually a "quick start" section, which enables the user to
start using the product. Complicated products require a learning curve which
inhibits many people and satisfies only those who are either already familiar
with its use, or are willing to invest the time and energy to learn how to use
it.
Look
ma, no manuals!
In
the future, the intelligent appliance will adapt to the
characteristics of the user. It will be very simple and relatively foolproof for
the casual user, and provide more features and capabilities for those who need
or wish to utilize more. Adaptation includes functional changes as the user
progresses from basic functions to more advanced features at a later stage.
The
intelligent appliance will recognize which buttons are being pushed to record
the habit patterns of the user and adapt to suit. With multiple users, the
appliance may be told, or will sense who is using it, and act accordingly.
In all cases, context-sensitive "help" will be standard, eliminating
the need for a written manual. Simple appliances that have no text-screens will
have either "idiot lights" or voice-output, features that have minimal cost.
Voice-response
will eliminate keyboards
Speech-recognition
has limited uses today because of background noise and dependence on speaker
characteristics. As technology
advances (more memory and processing power) appliance buttons will disappear and
voice commands will be more common. This technology is already being utilized in
automobile radios and cell phones and will soon become useable in other
environments.
Within
the next decade or so, tiny keyboards will be not be used on cell phones and
PDAs, simply because voice-command technology will be much more economical and
effective. Within a couple of decades, keyboards will become passé – most
people will simply talk with their computers, as they do in Star-Trek.
Predictive
Diagnostics
A
significant and useful intelligence characteristic is diagnostics - not only
after failure has occurred, but also predictive (before failure) and advisory
(providing maintenance instructions). It is not sufficient to know that a
product has failed; if the failure occurs at an inconvenient time that may
result in significant inconvenience and hardship. Indeed, it is more important
to signal that failure will probably occur "soon", allowing the user
time to arrange alternatives.
Just
as PCs have diagnostics for memory (RAM, disk-space and processing load) and
provide warnings when these resources are short, most products will have
predictive and preventive diagnostics. For example, if a button appears to be
"sticky", then the appliance can perhaps continue to operate, with
some precautions. On the other hand, a different kind of "stickiness"
might demand immediate remedial action. This
is like sensing the rattling in an automobile engine to correct the problem
before a catastrophic problem occurs. In the future, that kind of intelligence
will reside in many intelligent appliances.
The
Pervasive Internet
Connectivity
infrastructure is moving very quickly to connect everyone and everything to the
Internet, not only through high-speed DSL and cable-modems, but also soon
through third-generation wireless. The impact on intelligent appliances of all
types will be significant. Connecting products with conventional wire is still a
major hindrance. With third-generation wireless connectivity (including the new,
local-area-network technology called "bluetooth") virtually all
products will be simply, effectively and economically connected.
With
future appliances, a lot of connectivity will be hidden, simply there to help
the manufacturer keep track of usage information, reporting data back to measure
and avoid failure of parts and equipment. So, the manufacturer will call to let
you know that your washing machine is about to fail, and that a new replacement
part is already on the way.
Today,
Internet connections occur primarily through computers. Soon, most connections
will be though portable wireless "appliances" carried by individuals
(as they carried radios yesterday and cell-phones today). Their wireless PDAs
(personal digital assistants) will be connected via the web to everything they
need, including access to other connected appliances.
So,
you can check the status of your home and all its appliances from wherever you
are. And, through the GPS (global positioning system) in your PDA or cell phone,
your home will know where you are.
Jim
Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology entrepreneur,
investor and futurist.
