
In todays global business environment, products
must be developed quickly and inexpensively, and manufactured at the lowest
cost. Where the products are developed is irrelevant productivity is the
key. The companies that can utilize global resources effectively will generate
growth and success!
Adapt or fail
The prolonged business recession in this new
century is bringing significant and irreversible changes in a competitive,
global environment. Industrial automation end-users and suppliers alike have had
to cope with declining business. The trend has brought mergers, acquisitions,
divestitures and consolidations in its wake. How will the tide turn?
In todays global markets every business is pitted
against worldwide competitors with consistently improving productivity, better
performance and shrinking prices. For automation suppliers, this global
competitiveness is simply reflected back with increasing demands in every
direction.
Almost every segment of business is undergoing
significant change. For end-users, manufacturing plants must be smaller, more
productive, more flexible, with location typically determined by proximity to
raw materials, or customers. For automation suppliers, products must be designed
to meet global end-user needs, with integration and maintenance services that
are local for all customers.
Many automation products have become
commodities
Industrial automation equipment is used in
factories and process plants to provide productivity improvements for end users.
A couple of decades ago, many automation products used proprietary technology
that provided true customer value and generated good growth and profit margins.
Over the past few years most automation products
today have become commodities available from several sources with marginally
different features and benefits. This makes them subject to drastic price
reductions and stiff competition, causing a general business decline. A
recession makes the competition more brutal, as competitors cut prices in their
struggle to survive.
The core features and functions of PLC and DCS
systems are easily copied and the cost reduces to quality manufacture of
commodity hardware with the lowest labor and overhead. Software is even more
easily copied if not directly, then at least through availability of
functional equivalents.
Offshore manufacturing & design
Beyond just trained labor, knowledge work such as
design and engineering services are also being outsourced. This trend has
already become significant in the US, causing joblessness not only for
manufacturing labor, but also for traditionally high-paid engineering positions.
Supposedly innovation, the true source of value, remains; but that too is in
danger of being dissipated sacrificed to a short-term search for profit.
Most US and European companies have been though
the treadmill of quality and cost improvements TQM, Lean Manufacturing, and
the like. But offshore companies too have quickly learned the drill. So, the
cost differentiation comes down directly to relative wage scales. Beyond just
lower cost labor, many offshore manufacturers are also investing heavily in new
equipment, so there is often a production facilities advantage.
Software can be developed quickly and cheaply in
countries like India, which have rapidly become software development centers.
Indeed, outsourced software development is not only cheaper, it is produced in
shorter timeframes, and in many cases it is better innovative features and
tight code.
With the recent lack of growth, US automation
suppliers are looking to maintain or increase profits through the only means
available reducing costs through offshore outsourcing. Major automation
suppliers like Honeywell, Invensys, Emerson, Rockwell and General Electric have
already transferred major chunks of manufacturing to China and software
development to India. In a global environment, this makes good business sense.
We should not complain but adapt.
Chinacosm
It's clear to many people today that China is
poised to take over the world's manufacturing. In China today, some 18 million
people enter the work force each year, with typical wages of less than $1 a day.
Manufacturing workers outside of China are being displaced on a large scale;
even Mexico is losing jobs to China. Already a significant share of manufactured
goods is sourced in China. Wal-Mart, the retailing giant, buys more than $ 12
billion a year from China and provides a direct outlet for Chinese manufactured
goods into the US. Most economists agree that this has contributed to low US
inflation.
The idea that Chinese workers are replacing
physical labor elsewhere has long been accepted. Just a few years ago, China was
thought of as a place to make toys and sneakers, not semiconductors. But today,
the specter of Chinese high tech looms and the worlds most populous country is
poised to replace the world's knowledge workers as well.
The technology analyst George Gilder has coined
the term Chinacosm to express the rise of technology leadership in China.
Silicon-valley venture capitalists predict that over the next decade China will
become a ferociously formidable competitor in virtually every high tech arena.
Consider some of China's recent high-tech
milestones:
-
China is now turning out 700,000 engineers a
year, 37% of all college graduates, all trained in a university system that is
rapidly growing in size and quality.
-
Chinese universities granted 465,000 science and
engineering degrees last year approaching the US total.
-
China will become the world's second-largest
chip producer by 2004.
-
2 Chinese vendors of network switches have
opened US and European offices and snatched contracts from Cisco and Nortel.
-
China has been launching satellites for years
and began manned space missions in 2003.
In China, engineers pay ranges from $4,000 to
$8,000 a year, plus medical costs, housing and pension. As product design
becomes more network-centric and less location-dependent, competition against
Western engineers is becoming fierce.
Indiacosm
Software development in India has been booming in
recent years. India now sells $6-8 billion worth of software annually to the US,
with 60% annual growth projected over the next decade.
The stock of two software companies from
Bangalore, India (where I was born) trade in US stock markets with multi-billion
$ market caps. Infosys, with 2003 revenue of $750million, profit 25%, growth
38%, trades on Nasdaq with a market-cap of $11.5 billion. Wipro, with 2003
revenue of $ 900 million, growth 29%, profit 18%, trades on the NY stock
exchange with a market-cap approaching $9 billion.
By mid-century, India will surpass China as the
world's most populous country (China's population growth is under control;
India's is not). Already the world's largest democracy, India has the advantage
of a high-percentage of English-speaking scientists and engineers, generating
the Indiacosm of the new century.
3 keys for success
To counter the offshore outsourcing trend, old
aphorisms come into play cheap and dirty, you get what you pay for.
Actually, these sayings are quickly being proven wrong in this context. Of
course, in some cases, poor communication of requirements generates bad results.
But, by-and-large, good offshore resources produce excellent results better,
cheaper, faster.
In the future, the keys to success will be to
integrate and complement local technical and marketing skills with offshore
capabilities to produce a consistent stream of excellent hardware and software
products.
In a global market, there are 3 keys that
constitute the winning difference:
-
Proprietary products: developed quickly and
inexpensively, with a continuous stream of upgrade and adaptation to maintain
leadership. Where the products are developed is irrelevant productivity is
the key.
-
High-value-added services: proprietary knowledge
offered through effective service providers, tailored to specific customer
needs.
-
Global services: the special needs and custom
requirements of remote customers must be handled locally, giving them the
feelings of partnership and proximity.
Implementing these new directions is indeed a tall
order. New and different management and leadership abilities are demanded. In
the new and different business environment of the new century, the companies
that can achieve these goals will generate significant growth and success! Those
that dont perform will fail!
Related links:
http://www.smartmoney.com/Techwise/index.cfm?story=20021003
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_05/b3818001.htm
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.02/india.html
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_49/b3861010_mz001.htm
***
Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and
commentator, writer, technology futurist, angel investor. You can email him at:
jim@jimpinto.com. Or review his prognostications and predictions on his
website:
www.JimPinto.com
Read the Table of Contents of his latest book:
Automation unplugged:
http://www.jimpinto.com/writings/unplugged.html