Mobile Robot Market Forecast Slashed: Tariffs and Uncertainty Take Their Toll

Summary

The mobile robot industry, previously marked by rapid expansion and investment, is now undergoing a period of challenges and readjustment. We have recently revised our predictions to reflect current global conditions and our new expectations as to how it will develop in the future. In our latest mobile robot market report, published in May 2025, we significantly lowered our forecast, citing a complex mix of geopolitical, economic and industry-specific challenges, along with changes to our methodology in calculating market sizes.

2025 forecast cut: A $800 million reality check

Our latest analysis presented an $800 million reduction in the 2025 market forecast, with lower growth predicted in each of the major regions. This adjustment reflects a broader reassessment of the industry’s growth trajectory, with the 2030 revenue projection now standing at $15.6 billion, down from our earlier, more optimistic estimates. The resulting compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next five years has also been trimmed from 26% down to 21%.

Tariffs: The elephant in the warehouse

At the heart of the forecast revision lies the damaging global tariffs, instigated by the new US administration under President Trump. These tariffs are reshaping global supply chains and injecting a high degree of uncertainty into capital investment decisions, causing delays. Companies are holding back on large-scale automation investments, wary of shifting trade policies and uncertainty over both their own costs and the fiscal health of customers and vendors. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index hit an all-time high of 430 in January 2025. This level of uncertainty exceeds that seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result, many companies are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, delaying strategic investments in warehouse automation and infrastructure.

Aside from the increased costs, which would likely be passed through (partially or totally) to end customers, decades of globalization have meant products are rarely constructed entirely in a single country. Mobile robots are no different and foreign vendors (most notably Chinese) will struggle to remain competitive in the US (and possibly Europe). Similarly, domestic US vendors will incur higher costs (at least in the short term) as they import components and sub-systems from China and APAC.
 

Warehouse construction: A fragile recovery

While there are tentative signs of recovery in warehouse construction–especially in the US and Japan–growth remains sluggish. The global forecast for new warehouse capacity in 2025 has been revised upward slightly, but still remains in negative territory at -2.0% year-over-year out to 2030. Elevated construction costs, industrial overcapacity and policy uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on the sector.

A new view of mobile robots

Aside from the external factors outlined above, much of the reduction in our forecasts has come from the way we measure and predict demand for mobile robots. A reassessment of vendor-by-vendor volumes led us to an 8% reduction in our market sizes for 2024 and earlier. At the same time, we have conducted a thorough analysis of all possible customer sites for automation. By better considering the throughput levels of customer sites, we have adjusted our expectations for mobile automation (compared with fixed automation and manual labor). The net result of this is that the serviceable available market (SAM) for mobile robots is lower than we had previously projected, as market penetration for order fulfillment robots is assumed to be limited to low and mid throughput sites. Finally, as we have been researching this market since 2017 and now have 8 years of historical data, we are in a stronger position to understand the likely average growth rate for this industry following both the peak and trough of market cycles. The overall impact of the above factors is a hefty reduction in our forecast for autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) and automated guided vehicles (AGVs).
 

Observations on each mobile robot type:

AGV Conveyors & other material transport robots: Shipment growth reduced from 6% CAGR to 4% between 2025 and 2030 due to weakened economy and automotive growth.

AMR Conveyors: 15-20% cut in large form factor shipments and slight reduction in smaller form factor shipments due to slower anticipated uptake. Slightly offset by higher ASPs.

Automated Forklifts: Slight reduction in shipment CAGR due to the weaker economy.

Person-to-goods (P2G): We have made a fundamental change to our outlook for P2G robots. Our previous assumption was that more vendors would enter this market to enable volumes to scale. However, the market remains dominated by one vendor (Locus). Its once-closest rival (6 River Systems) has been absorbed into Ocado Intelligent Automation. There are a handful of other vendors active that have won some projects, but not at scale. Despite this, we still predict P2G revenues to grow at an average pace of 30% annually to 2030. And to clarify a recent comment we made about P2G being an interim step before full automation, we’re not suggesting that demand for this technology is going to slow. In fact, the demand for more flexible solutions remains very strong, and the prospect of full automation is still several decades out.

Shelf-to-person & Tote-to-person: These product types are those most impacted by both the US tariffs and our vendor adjustments, as a large proportion of these segments are served by Chinese vendors. Similarly, the deeper total addressable market (TAM) analysis we have conducted by warehouse throughput more greatly impacts these types of systems, which typically compete with fixed automation and high-density cube storage in mid-throughput sites. At the same time, we have also reduced our expectations for deployments in the rest of APAC and rest of the Americas regions, as we no longer expect costs to drop quickly enough to compete with manual labor in many cases.

The road ahead: Adaptation over acceleration

The message from Interact Analysis is clear: the mobile robot industry is still growing, but not as fast or as smoothly as once expected. Tariffs, economic uncertainty and shifting global dynamics are forcing companies to rethink their strategies and timelines.

For stakeholders across the automation ecosystem–from vendors and integrators to end-users and investors–this is a time for strategic patience and adaptability. The fundamentals of automation remain strong, but the path forward will require some careful navigation.