Industrial operations are entering a new era defined by hyper connectivity, automation and an unprecedented dependence on remote access and digital workflows. As organizations modernize their facilities and adopt AI-assisted decision-making, the once-impenetrable boundary between IT and OT continues to erode. The result is a shifting risk landscape in which the stability of physical operations increasingly depends on how digital identities and access policies are controlled.
The following five predictions highlight what industrial leaders should anticipate in 2026 and why identity-centric access and stronger IT/OT separation will become key to operational resilience.
1. Downtime will stem more from weak access pathways than direct OT intrusions.
Investigations across manufacturing, energy, and critical infrastructure during 2025 revealed a clear trend: most OT disruptions did not begin with a direct compromise of programmable logic controllers (PLCs) or field devices.
Instead, incidents usually originated upstream in IT — often through vulnerable vendor connections, misconfigured remote access tools, or overly permissive user accounts. The growing interconnectivity of IT and OT systems has led attackers to exploit the “softer” IT entry point and then move laterally into operational environments. With remote access now central to diagnostics, maintenance, third-party involvement and hybrid work, these pathways have become one of the most dominant operational attack surfaces.
2026 impact: Organizations will shift their focus from protecting networks to protecting access routes. Remote access, vendor connectivity, and identity verification will be treated as Tier-0 controls. Without secure, governed pathways, even strong endpoint and network protections cannot prevent attacks on IT from spilling into operations.
2. Legacy systems and reactive maintenance will continue driving significant unplanned downtime.
Industrial organizations across sectors remain dependent on aging systems and custom-built equipment that cannot be quickly patched or replaced. As a result, unplanned downtime caused by malfunction, outdated components, and reactive troubleshooting remains one of the most persistent — and costly — operational challenges.
Many manufacturers reported losing hundreds of hours to unexpected stoppages in 2025, often far exceeding downtime caused by cyber incidents. Engineering teams frequently had to wait for vendors to arrive on-site, manually validate issues, or coordinate complex remote interventions. This reactive posture strains already lean operational teams and slows response times when every minute counts.
2026 impact: Modernization efforts will accelerate, driven not only by cybersecurity pressure but also by the unsustainable cost of unplanned downtime. Remote diagnostics, supervised access, standardized workflows, and identity-level control will play a central role in reducing mean time to resolution (MTTR) and improving reliability, particularly when legacy assets must remain in service long term.
3. AI will accelerate attacks and expand the OT attack surface.
AI is transforming both security operations and adversarial capabilities. In 2025, attackers used AI tools to automate reconnaissance, identify misconfigurations, generate tailored exploits and orchestrate complex attacks at machine speed. Tasks that once required substantial expertise now demand only intent and access to an AI model.
For OT environments, where remote access, flat networks and legacy systems are common, the implications of this shift are profound. AI-powered automation makes it far easier to discover weak access routes, exposed services, or poorly segmented networks.
2026 impact: Cyberattacks on industrial environments will become faster, cheaper, and more targeted. AI will amplify existing weaknesses, especially where identity governance and access controls are inconsistent. Identity-based protections, segmentation, supervision, and real-time session visibility will be essential to counter AI-accelerated threats.
4. Compromised AI agents and shadow AI will introduce a new class of insider threat.
As engineers, operators, and vendors adopt AI copilots and automation tools, a new layer of operational risk is emerging — one that most organizations are not yet prepared to manage. AI agents can make recommendations, execute tasks autonomously, or interact with systems through shared accounts or unsecured interfaces. If compromised, these agents could initiate unsafe commands, approve risky operations or expose sensitive data. Shadow AI, the practice of using tools, models or agents outside of formal IT, security or governance oversight, compounds the challenge. When teams use unapproved AI tools, they create unmonitored access paths that bypass traditional controls and perform actions no one is tracking by tools no one has vetted.
2026 impact: AI agents will be recognized as a new identity class that requires governance, permissions, segmentation, and session oversight. Organizations will need to apply zero-trust principles not only to humans, but also to the automated systems acting on their behalf. In many cases, AI will need to supervise AI, ensuring risky or abnormal actions trigger alerts before harm occurs.
5. Hard segmentation between IT and OT will become non-negotiable
Every major 2025 downtime pattern, whether triggered by a breach or by an equipment malfunction, revealed the same structural weakness: the IT/OT boundary is far too porous. Flat networks, indirect connectivity, and shared user pathways allowed failures, malware, and misconfigurations in IT environments to spill into operational systems.With both AI-driven attacks and shadow AI usage on the rise, the risk of rapid lateral movement continues to grow. Operational environments cannot afford for a minor IT issue to escalate into a major OT outage.
2026 impact: Segmentation will shift from a security recommendation to an operational mandate. Identity-based segmentation, isolated vendor zones, machine-to-machine access policies, and supervised pathways will become the baseline for safe, reliable operations. The goal is not only to stop attackers, but also to contain failures and preserve uptime.
Conclusion: Access control will define operational resilience in 2026.
Identity-first access, strong segmentation, real-time supervision and governance for automated tools will form the foundation of modern industrial operations. Organizations that embrace these principles will be better positioned to reduce downtime, manage complexity, and stay ahead of evolving threats and technologies.
2026 is poised to be the year when secure access stops merely supporting operations — and starts driving them.
